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Equity Derivatives Watchlist
Delayed CBOE chains and Yahoo bars. Realized vol is Yang–Zhang 20d; implied move is the ATM-forward expected move to the front expiry (≥ 5 days out). Risk-free rate from 13-week bills: 3.99%.
| Symbol | Last | 1d | 90d | RV 20d | IV 30d | IV − RV | ATM IV (front) | Implied move | Front expiry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | $342.94 | -11.0% | 49.8% | 55.2% | +5.4% | 68.3% | ±7.0% | 2026-11-11 | |
| SPCX | $124.67 | -8.3% | 68.8% | 63.8% | -5.0% | 81.6% | ±8.3% | 2026-11-11 | |
| NVDA | $182.30 | -8.9% | 37.3% | 59.7% | +22.4% | 70.3% | ±7.2% | 2026-11-11 | |
| PLTR | $154.53 | -10.0% | 59.6% | 57.8% | -1.8% | 70.7% | ±8.4% | 2026-11-13 | |
| BETA | $23.96 | -5.4% | 80.2% | 75.8% | -4.4% | 62.3% | ±10.1% | 2026-11-20 | |
| META | $604.55 | -4.0% | 42.1% | 44.0% | +2.0% | 51.6% | ±5.3% | 2026-11-11 | |
| CAT | $556.08 | -6.0% | 59.5% | 46.4% | -13.1% | 56.2% | ±6.6% | 2026-11-13 | |
| COIN | $137.56 | -9.2% | 72.5% | 71.6% | -0.9% | 81.8% | ±9.7% | 2026-11-13 |
Event contracts
Most Active Prediction Markets
| Venue | Market | Yes | 24h volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs — Dplus KIA | 41.5% | 1M | Nov 6, 2026 |
| polymarket | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-05? | 100.0% | 933K | Nov 5, 2026 |
| polymarket | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 96.4% | 870.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| polymarket | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 65.5% | 816.3K | Dec 9, 2026 |
| polymarket | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 100.0% | 772.3K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| polymarket | Will AC Milan win on 2026-11-05? | 0.1% | 653.6K | Nov 5, 2026 |
| manifold | Will Trump finish his second term? | 86.0% | 162.4K | Jan 22, 2029 |
| manifold | Will Democrats win EVERY Cook Political Report Likely D Seat? | 99.0% | 49.9K | Nov 9, 2026 |
| manifold | Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election? | 7.0% | 46.3K | Jan 10, 2027 |
| manifold | Will Trump Die in 2026? | 1.0% | 28.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |