03 // Vol Surface
TSLA $323.20
Raw-SVI fits per expiry from OTM mid quotes · IV30 42.1% · r = 3.70%
Fitted smiles by expiry (SVI)
x-axis is moneyness K/F; shared y-axis across panels. Dashed line marks the forward.
2026-08-07 · ATM 78.8%
2026-08-10 · ATM 37.1%
2026-08-12 · ATM 39.8%
2026-08-14 · ATM 42.0%
2026-08-17 · ATM 38.7%
2026-08-19 · ATM 40.9%
2026-08-21 · ATM 41.4%
2026-08-28 · ATM 41.5%
Risk-neutral density (Breeden–Litzenberger)
Density extracted from the fitted smile; forward $319.69. Below: implied P(ST > K) for the same expiry.
| Expiry | T (yrs) | Forward | Implied carry q | ATM IV | Expected move | Move ($) | Strikes fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 0.0008 | $319.69 | 20.00% | 78.8% | ±1.7% | ±$5.50 | 65 |
| 2026-08-10 | 0.0090 | $319.67 | 20.00% | 37.1% | ±2.8% | ±$8.96 | 66 |
| 2026-08-12 | 0.0144 | $319.78 | 20.00% | 39.8% | ±3.8% | ±$12.19 | 75 |
| 2026-08-14 | 0.0199 | $319.92 | 20.00% | 42.0% | ±4.7% | ±$15.15 | 104 |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.0281 | $319.87 | 20.00% | 38.7% | ±5.2% | ±$16.58 | 74 |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.0336 | $319.99 | 20.00% | 40.9% | ±6.0% | ±$19.16 | 78 |
| 2026-08-21 | 0.0391 | $320.14 | 20.00% | 41.4% | ±6.5% | ±$20.93 | 116 |
| 2026-08-28 | 0.0583 | $320.42 | 18.51% | 41.5% | ±8.0% | ±$25.63 | 89 |
| 2026-09-04 | 0.0775 | $320.69 | 13.77% | 42.0% | ±9.3% | ±$29.91 | 94 |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.0966 | $321.00 | 10.78% | 41.0% | ±10.2% | ±$32.68 | 87 |