03 // Vol Surface
TSLA $342.28
Raw-SVI fits per expiry from OTM mid quotes · IV30 55.2% · r = 3.99%
Fitted smiles by expiry (SVI)
x-axis is moneyness K/F; shared y-axis across panels. Dashed line marks the forward.
2026-11-06 · ATM 98.6%
2026-11-09 · ATM 66.9%
2026-11-11 · ATM 68.5%
2026-11-13 · ATM 66.9%
2026-11-16 · ATM 61.0%
2026-11-18 · ATM 62.0%
2026-11-20 · ATM 59.9%
2026-11-27 · ATM 54.6%
Risk-neutral density (Breeden–Litzenberger)
Density extracted from the fitted smile; forward $342.38. Below: implied P(ST > K) for the same expiry.
| Expiry | T (yrs) | Forward | Implied carry q | ATM IV | Expected move | Move ($) | Strikes fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | 0.0026 | $342.38 | -5.00% | 98.6% | ±4.0% | ±$13.82 | 76 |
| 2026-11-09 | 0.0109 | $342.42 | -0.02% | 66.9% | ±5.6% | ±$19.05 | 72 |
| 2026-11-11 | 0.0163 | $342.67 | -3.14% | 68.5% | ±7.0% | ±$23.94 | 90 |
| 2026-11-13 | 0.0218 | $342.72 | -2.01% | 66.9% | ±7.9% | ±$27.01 | 118 |
| 2026-11-16 | 0.0300 | $342.97 | -2.73% | 61.0% | ±8.4% | ±$28.90 | 79 |
| 2026-11-18 | 0.0355 | $342.84 | -0.63% | 62.0% | ±9.3% | ±$31.94 | 81 |
| 2026-11-20 | 0.0410 | $342.89 | -0.38% | 59.9% | ±9.7% | ±$33.20 | 119 |
| 2026-11-27 | 0.0602 | $343.34 | -1.19% | 54.6% | ±10.7% | ±$36.70 | 95 |
| 2026-12-04 | 0.0793 | $343.70 | -1.23% | 53.0% | ±11.9% | ±$40.97 | 92 |
| 2026-12-11 | 0.0985 | $344.07 | -1.32% | 51.3% | ±12.9% | ±$44.21 | 99 |