03 // Vol Surface
TSLA $373.69
Raw-SVI fits per expiry from OTM mid quotes · IV30 43.6% · r = 3.98%
Fitted smiles by expiry (SVI)
x-axis is moneyness K/F; shared y-axis across panels. Dashed line marks the forward.
2026-09-21 · ATM 46.5%
2026-09-23 · ATM 40.9%
2026-09-25 · ATM 40.8%
2026-09-28 · ATM 36.5%
2026-09-30 · ATM 38.7%
2026-10-02 · ATM 41.6%
2026-10-05 · ATM 40.3%
2026-10-09 · ATM 40.1%
Risk-neutral density (Breeden–Litzenberger)
Density extracted from the fitted smile; forward $373.69. Below: implied P(ST > K) for the same expiry.
| Expiry | T (yrs) | Forward | Implied carry q | ATM IV | Expected move | Move ($) | Strikes fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 0.0004 | $373.69 | 0.24% | 46.5% | ±0.7% | ±$2.61 | 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | 0.0058 | $373.79 | -0.69% | 40.9% | ±2.5% | ±$9.32 | 57 |
| 2026-09-25 | 0.0113 | $373.97 | -2.72% | 40.8% | ±3.5% | ±$12.95 | 89 |
| 2026-09-28 | 0.0195 | $374.09 | -1.51% | 36.5% | ±4.1% | ±$15.22 | 56 |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.0250 | $374.17 | -1.11% | 38.7% | ±4.9% | ±$18.27 | 58 |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.0305 | $374.31 | -1.44% | 41.6% | ±5.8% | ±$21.71 | 116 |
| 2026-10-05 | 0.0387 | $374.45 | -1.26% | 40.3% | ±6.3% | ±$23.67 | 30 |
| 2026-10-09 | 0.0497 | $374.63 | -1.07% | 40.1% | ±7.1% | ±$26.70 | 98 |
| 2026-10-16 | 0.0688 | $374.89 | -0.66% | 39.5% | ±8.3% | ±$31.00 | 134 |
| 2026-10-23 | 0.0880 | $375.31 | -0.93% | 43.4% | ±10.3% | ±$38.60 | 92 |