statisTracker
05 // Predictions

Prediction Markets

Live order books and crowd probabilities across Polymarket (crypto settlement), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated), and Manifold (play-money). A binary YES contract paying $1 is a cash-or-nothing digital option; its price is the market's risk-neutral probability of the event.

VenueMarketYesBid / Ask24h volTotal volCloses
polymarketLoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs — Dplus KIA41.5%41.0% / 42.0%1M1.2MNov 6, 2026
polymarketWill AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-05?100.0%99.9% / 100.0%922.2K920.5KNov 5, 2026
polymarketWill Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?96.4%96.2% / 96.5%882.7K4.1MNov 4, 2026
polymarketUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?100.0%99.9% / 100.0%772.6K11.8MOct 31, 2026
polymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?67.5%67.0% / 68.0%726.7K3.9MDec 9, 2026
polymarketWill AC Milan win on 2026-11-05?0.1%—653.3K682KNov 5, 2026
polymarketWill Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-05?91.5%91.0% / 92.0%549.7K534.4KNov 5, 2026
polymarketWill Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?96.5%96.3% / 96.6%539.1K10.3MNov 3, 2026
polymarketUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?100.0%99.9% / 100.0%533.3K3.1MNov 3, 2026
polymarketWill Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-11-05?100.0%99.9% / 100.0%512.8K519.6KNov 5, 2026
polymarketMagic vs. Suns — Magic49.5%49.0% / 50.0%496.1K496.9KNov 6, 2026
polymarketSpread: Warriors (-6.5) — Warriors51.5%51.0% / 52.0%466.2K466.2KNov 6, 2026
polymarketWill KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-11-05?2.5%2.0% / 3.0%457.5K445.2KNov 5, 2026
polymarketWill Sunderland AFC win on 2026-11-05?62.5%62.0% / 63.0%456K113.9KNov 5, 2026
polymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?25.9%25.9% / 26.0%452.9K33.7MOct 28, 2026
manifoldWill Trump finish his second term?86.1%—162.4K2.1MJan 22, 2029
manifoldWill Democrats win EVERY Cook Political Report Likely D Seat?99.0%—49.9K64.1KNov 9, 2026
manifoldWill there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?8.0%—35.8K66.1KJan 10, 2027
manifoldWill Trump Die in 2026?1.0%—28.4K192.9KDec 31, 2026
manifold[RESOLVES JANUARY 31] Will the Senate majority leader and speaker of the house both be Democrats after the 2026 midterms98.1%—26.2K72.1KJan 31, 2027
manifoldWill it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?1.0%—21K117.6KJan 21, 2028
manifoldHarris wins 2028 election?3.1%—16K229KJan 7, 2029
manifoldWill Democrats win EVERY Cook Political Report Lean D Seat?99.0%—13.7K22.1KDec 31, 2026
manifoldWill Iran's regime fall in 2026?3.0%—11K3.2MDec 31, 2026
manifoldWill any US Senate election in 2026 have a winning margin of 1.000% or less?99.0%—8.6K9.5KDec 31, 2026
manifoldWill Washington Initiative IL26-638 (girls' sports eligibility by sex) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?98.5%—8.5K13.5KNov 18, 2026
manifoldIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?16.3%—8.4K214.8KNov 8, 2028
manifoldWill my friend get a partner at or before HMMT November 2026?2.5%—7K15.8KNov 9, 2026
manifold[ACX 2026] Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?59.6%—6.8K70.6KDec 31, 2026
manifoldWill Colorado Proposition 137 (sporting goods tax for conservation) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?95.3%—6.3K7.7KNov 18, 2026

Yes price ≈ implied probability. Kalshi shows order-book mid; Kalshi fees ≈ 7% × P × (1 − P) per contract move break-even away from mid. Manifold is play-money and quoted as a crowd probability.