statisTracker
05 // Predictions

Prediction Markets

Live order books and crowd probabilities across Polymarket (crypto settlement), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated), and Manifold (play-money). A binary YES contract paying $1 is a cash-or-nothing digital option; its price is the market's risk-neutral probability of the event.

VenueMarketYesBid / Ask24h volTotal volCloses
polymarketLoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend — JD Gaming100.0%99.9% / 100.0%1.2M1.2MAug 7, 2026
polymarketLoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner — BNK FEARX0.1%1.2M1.2MAug 7, 2026
polymarketLoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner — Team WE0.1%1.1M1.1MAug 7, 2026
polymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12.5%12.0% / 13.0%999.6K9.1MAug 31, 2026
polymarketLoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner — KT Rolster0.1%860.2K860.2KAug 7, 2026
polymarketLoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner — Team WE100.0%99.9% / 100.0%810.1K809.8KAug 7, 2026
polymarketLoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend — Team WE62.0%61.0% / 63.0%805.2K806.5KAug 7, 2026
polymarketLoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner — JD Gaming100.0%99.9% / 100.0%795.8K795.8KAug 7, 2026
polymarketWill Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.3%0.2% / 0.4%783.9K28.2MJun 1, 2026
polymarketLoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner — KT Rolster0.1%782.6K783.9KAug 7, 2026
polymarketLoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group — KT Rolster0.1%603K629.2KAug 7, 2026
polymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?11.8%11.3% / 12.2%590K2.3MAug 7, 2026
polymarketWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?1.9%1.9% / 2.0%548.3K4.7MSep 16, 2026
polymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?17.5%17.0% / 18.0%490.4K57.5MDec 31, 2026
polymarketLoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner — BNK FEARX13.5%13.0% / 14.0%466.3K452.3KAug 7, 2026
manifoldWill Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?66.8%46.9K59.1KAug 9, 2026
manifoldHantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]1.0%20K534KDec 31, 2026
manifoldGojo Stock50.0%17.5K22.4KSep 22, 2160
manifoldWill Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?55.0%9K125.7KDec 1, 2026
manifoldDonut Battery is essentially Lithium free?16.7%6.1K612.8KJan 1, 2027
manifoldWill Abdul El Sayed and Francesca Hong both win their primaries?91.4%5.4K47.8KAug 12, 2026
manifoldWill Jannik Sinner win at least 2 Grand Slams in 2026?50.0%5.3K11.4KSep 13, 2026
manifoldWill an Israeli participate in IOI 202698.9%5.2K14.1KDec 31, 2026
manifoldCarried Interest Repeal by End of 20267.3%5K36.1KJan 1, 2027
manifoldRepublicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?9.9%4.5K444.5KNov 4, 2026
manifoldSpider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?98.8%2.6K29.2KOct 22, 2026
manifoldWill the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?90.1%2.3K2.6KDec 31, 2026
manifoldWill something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?82.0%2.2K2.2KAug 14, 2026
manifoldWill much AI research be nationalized by 2027?8.9%2K32.5KJan 1, 2027
manifoldWill Bitcoin be higher by close on Friday?89.9%1.8K3.7KAug 8, 2026
kalshiyes $65,000 or above,yes New York Y50.0%0.0% / 100.0%15.4Aug 10, 2026
kalshiyes Michele Ribecai,no Target Price: $65,046.52,yes Theo Papamalamis,yes Jodie Anna Burrage,yes Ane Mintegi Del Olmo50.0%0.0% / 100.0%257.4Aug 21, 2026
kalshiyes Philadelphia,yes Boston,yes Cleveland,yes Milwaukee,yes Chicago C,yes Texas,no Over 10.5 runs scored,no Over 12.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored,no Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored,no Over 12.5 runs scored,no Over 9.5 runs scored,no Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 2.5 runs scored,yes Over 2.5 runs scored,no Over 11.5 runs scored,no Over 10.5 runs scored50.0%0.0% / 100.0%465.1Aug 11, 2026
kalshiyes Michele Ribecai,yes Nicolas Ifi,yes Abel Forger,yes Gabriela Knutson50.0%0.0% / 100.0%47.5Aug 21, 2026
kalshiyes St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs,yes San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs,yes Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs,yes Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 runs,yes Detroit wins by over 1.5 runs50.0%0.0% / 100.0%847.5Aug 11, 2026
kalshiyes Maxime Chazal,yes Vincent Dullinger,yes Linus Lagerbohm,yes Theo Papamalamis,yes Abel Forger50.0%0.0% / 100.0%7.4Aug 21, 2026

Yes price ≈ implied probability. Kalshi shows order-book mid; Kalshi fees ≈ 7% × P × (1 − P) per contract move break-even away from mid. Manifold is play-money and quoted as a crowd probability.