statisTracker
05 // Predictions

Prediction Markets

Live order books and crowd probabilities across Polymarket (crypto settlement), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated), and Manifold (play-money). A binary YES contract paying $1 is a cash-or-nothing digital option; its price is the market's risk-neutral probability of the event.

VenueMarketYesBid / Ask24h volTotal volCloses
polymarketDota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner — Team Yandex100.0%99.9% / 100.0%664.1K664.1KSep 21, 2026
polymarketDota 2: Pibbles Corp vs Hokori - Game 1 Winner — Pibbles Corp0.1%652.3K652.3KSep 21, 2026
polymarketWill Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?0.1%0.1% / 0.2%459.8K20.5MMay 30, 2027
polymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?48.5%48.0% / 49.0%358.1K2.2MOct 28, 2026
polymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?3.9%3.8% / 4.0%294.9K39.1MJan 1, 2027
polymarketDota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage — Team Yandex83.5%83.0% / 84.0%282.7K282.7KSep 21, 2026
polymarketFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?18.5%18.0% / 19.0%270.6K2MJan 1, 2027
polymarketWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.5%0.5% / 0.6%259.1K1.8MOct 28, 2026
polymarket2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House8.5%8.0% / 9.0%245.8K3.7MNov 3, 2026
polymarketRussia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?97.7%97.5% / 97.9%238.8K889.2KOct 1, 2027
polymarketWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.4%0.3% / 0.4%228.8K1.3MOct 28, 2026
polymarketClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?6.0%5.9% / 6.1%227.1K22.8MJan 1, 2027
polymarketCounter-Strike: Leo Team vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage — Leo Team6.6%4.4% / 8.7%214.4K214.4KSep 21, 2026
polymarketGiants vs. Rams — Giants26.5%26.0% / 27.0%204.6K263.2KSep 22, 2026
polymarketWill Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?99.3%99.1% / 99.5%204K442.2KSep 23, 2026
manifoldWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?96.1%49.4K10.5MJul 19, 2028
manifoldWill AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?5.0%25.7K7.4MJan 2, 2030
manifoldWill Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?41.6%20.8K197.9KDec 1, 2026
manifoldWill Timo Kielich win 3 or more races in the 2026 UCI Professional Cycling Season?1.0%10K12.9KOct 31, 2026
manifoldAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?3.6%9.3K1.2MDec 31, 2026
manifoldWill Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?1.0%8.7K16.8KNov 26, 2026
manifoldCATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?71.9%8.4K148.7KDec 31, 2026
manifoldBitcoin $55K before $85K?1.0%7.1K30.9KDec 31, 2027
manifoldWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?55.1%7K301.9KJan 1, 2027
manifoldAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?89.0%5.5K14.8KDec 31, 2028
manifoldWill Democrat Angie Nixon win Miami Dade County in the Florida Senate Election?30.0%4.8K5.8KNov 3, 2026
manifoldAt least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026?5.4%4.8K4.1KDec 31, 2026
manifoldWill Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?1.0%4.3K17KNov 4, 2026
manifoldOpus 5.2 released in September?8.6%3.6K79KSep 30, 2026
manifoldWill The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office every single day from Sept 14–30?2.3%3.6K20.1KSep 30, 2026

Yes price ≈ implied probability. Kalshi shows order-book mid; Kalshi fees ≈ 7% × P × (1 − P) per contract move break-even away from mid. Manifold is play-money and quoted as a crowd probability.